Change is constant. New social trends, new behaviours and new ways of thinking are reshaping the world as we know it – and this is likely to gain momentum in the future. At Delta Lloyd we have a tool that helps us prepare for the uncertainties ahead. We use scenarios that anticipate various outcomes for current and future trends. It allows us to better respond to developments and adjust and sharpen our strategy today so we can deal with the challenges of tomorrow. We believe this helps us take better care of our company, our clients and our stakeholders.
Of course we can’t predict the future. But we can try to imagine what the world will be like in 15 years’ time. What will be the major economic, political and financial developments? How will society change? Will sustainability be the panacea that brings new balance to the world, as one of our basic scenarios describes, or will economic stagnation continue, societies splinter and political coalitions fail, as another scenario suggests? The outcomes of our scenarios differ widely, but it is only by exploring all possible roads leading to the future that we can make sure we are ready.
In addition to preparing ourselves for the future, we also want to stimulate discussion and exchange ideas, because one thing is certain: Europe – and indeed the world – is changing.
Delta Lloyd is already benefiting from scenario thinking. By mapping out the consequences of a possible break up of the euro we were quick to reduce our credit risk and retreat from government bonds of at-risk countries as events unfolded in Europe in recent years.